Energy Security in Focus as Regional Instability Rises

Supply Chain Shifts, OPEC+ Moves, and the UAE’s Energy Strategy Published in Abu Dhabi, 02 Feb 2026 11:59 am (GST) At the start of February 2026, the global oil market stands at a crossroads. Crude prices are caught between two opposing forces. On one side, a growing supply surplus is exerting downward pressure. On the other, geopolitical tensions continue to inject volatility into pricing. Brent crude has recently approached the $70 per barrel level amid renewed U.S.–Iran friction, even as consensus forecasts point to average pricing in the low $60s for the year ahead. This complex environment is being shaped by three converging dynamics: structural shifts in global supply chains, recalibrated strategy within OPEC+, and long-term energy transition planning led by major producers such as the UAE. Global Oil Supply Chain Shifts T he global oil supply chain has been materially reshaped by geopolitics, sanctions, and changing demand centres. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, crude trade flows were rapidly reoriented. By 2024, approximately 81 percent of Russian crude exports were flowing into Asia, primarily China and India, compared with around 40 percent in 2021. Europe’s share fell to roughly 12 percent, down from nearly half prior to the conflict. European refiners responded by diversifying supply, increasing imports from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. This diversification improved resilience but raised transport costs and extended supply routes. Key global shifts include: China , now the world’s largest crude importer, imported approximately 11.1 million barrels per day in 2024. Russia has become its largest single supplier, supported by discounted pricing and long-term bilateral trade arrangements. India dramatically expanded imports of Russian crude, which now account for roughly one-third of its total oil intake. This shift strengthened India’s refining margins but triggered political pressure from Western governments throughout 2025. Europe , following its embargo on Russian oil, sources roughly one quarter of crude imports from Africa and over one fifth from the United States. Middle Eastern producers, including the UAE, have also increased volumes into European markets. The United States remains a substantial crude importer at approximately 6.6 million barrels per day, despite its position as a top global producer. The U.S. primarily imports heavy crude grades from Canada to meet refinery specifications, while exporting lighter grades and refined products. Beyond trade redirection, the supply landscape itself is expanding. New non-OPEC producers are gaining influence. Brazil, Guyana, and Canada are collectively expected to add around 2.4 million barrels per day of supply by 2026, intensifying competition and reinforcing a well-supplied global market. At the same time, oil demand growth continues to tilt eastward. Consumption in Europe and Japan remains subdued due to efficiency gains and slower growth, while China and India continue to drive incremental demand. This reinforces Asia’s central role in global oil flows and strategic planning.