Market Insights & Global Trade Updates

IEA Surplus Warning, China’s Import Slowdown and a Russian Refinery Outage Shake Global Supply Published in Abu Dhabi, 20 October 2025 2:56pm (GST) Over the past week oil traders have been pulled between two very different narratives. On one side, fears of a deep oversupply have dragged Brent and WTI to multi‑week lows, with benchmarks down more than two percent last week and early trades this week seeing Brent futures around US$61.11 and WTI near US$57.34 as investors priced in a looming glut. On the other side, geopolitical flashpoints continue to crop up, briefly tightening supply and reminding the market that refined products and crude flows can be interrupted without warning. At Auctora we see opportunity in the dislocation between these themes – but only for buyers and sellers prepared to adjust strategies quickly. The oversupply narrative gains momentum The International Energy Agency’s latest market update raised its forecast for global supply growth and warned that the world could be staring at a major surplus as soon as 2026. Analysts now expect non‑OPEC production to grow faster than demand, driven by the United States, Brazil and Guyana. At the same time, OPEC+ has been unwinding some of its output cuts, reversing course after nearly two years of restraint to regain market share from U.S. shale and other rivals.  The Gaza ceasefire has further reduced concerns about supply disruption in the Middle Eastoilprice.com. Combined with an easing of U.S.–China trade tensions, these factors have encouraged selling pressure and pushed prices lower.