Strategic Moves in an Uncertain Climate

Shifting Supply, Tightening Contracts – Navigating Oil’s Uncertain Terrain

Published in Abu Dhabi - UAE, 10 August  2025 17:35am (GMT)




This past week has underlined just how complex and fast-moving the petroleum market has become. Prices continued to soften, with Brent crude slipping below $66 and WTI under $64—the longest losing streak since 2021. For buyers and sellers navigating this environment, the fluctuations aren’t just numbers on a screen—they represent shifting opportunities, risks, and strategic decisions that must be made quickly and with precision.


Price Trends and Supply Dynamics

OPEC+ confirmed a September output increase of 547,000 barrels per day. While this may reassure some markets about supply stability, it is also adding to downward price pressure at a time when demand growth is weaker than expected. The slowdown in China’s industrial output and muted US demand forecasts have contributed to the cautious tone.

In a significant supply chain shift, India’s IOC and BPCL finalised purchases of 22 million barrels of non-Russian crude. This is more than just a diversification of feedstock—it reflects a growing trend among major importers to secure supply chains that are resilient to sanctions, freight route risks, and political pressures.


Geopolitical Watch Points

Markets are watching closely for the outcome of potential U.S.–Russia discussions and the political pressure from former President Trump’s proposed Russia–Ukraine cease-fire deadline. Any breakthrough or setback could send ripples through the market almost immediately. For traders, this underscores the importance of real-time intelligence and the ability to pivot quickly.


Current Challenges for Buyers and Sellers

From our direct dealings this week:

  • Buyers are increasingly unwilling to commit to long laycan windows. They want verifiable allocations, rapid procedural alignment, and documentation that leaves no room for doubt.
  • Sellers are facing the dual challenge of maintaining credibility while adjusting to tighter banking timelines and heightened scrutiny of their performance history.
  • Intermediaries are finding that without clear and bankable offers, access to serious buyers is evaporating faster than ever.


Auctora Trade Group’s Perspective

At Auctora, we have spent the past week working with counterparties in the Gulf, Africa, and Europe who understand that success in today’s petroleum trade comes down to three critical factors:

  1. Counterparty Integrity – In volatile times, trust is currency. Every mandate, allocation, and instrument must be fully vetted.
  2. Procedural Clarity – Deals stall when procedures are vague or unrealistic. Alignment from the outset reduces risk and accelerates execution.
  3. Market Agility – The ability to adjust supply timelines, financing terms, and even product sources in response to market shifts is essential.


Our Advice to Buyers and Sellers

  • Stay Close to the Market: Political developments and supply adjustments can change pricing structures within hours.
  • Protect Your Position: Work only with counterparties who can demonstrate verified capability.
  • Shorten Your Exposure: Where possible, opt for shorter-term supply arrangements to minimise risk while maintaining flexibility.
  • Engage Strategically: Use this period to strengthen relationships with partners who have proven performance histories and banking credibility.


In an environment where the margin for error is shrinking, disciplined execution is the key differentiator. At Auctora Trade Group, we continue to work side-by-side with our clients to ensure that every deal is not just signed, but successfully delivered.

Oil Market at a Crossroads: Oversupply Fears vs. Shock Events

October 20, 2025
IEA Surplus Warning, China’s Import Slowdown and a Russian Refinery Outage Shake Global Supply Published in Abu Dhabi, 20 October 2025 2:56pm (GST) Over the past week oil traders have been pulled between two very different narratives. On one side, fears of a deep oversupply have dragged Brent and WTI to multi‑week lows, with benchmarks down more than two percent last week and early trades this week seeing Brent futures around US$61.11 and WTI near US$57.34 as investors priced in a looming glut. On the other side, geopolitical flashpoints continue to crop up, briefly tightening supply and reminding the market that refined products and crude flows can be interrupted without warning. At Auctora we see opportunity in the dislocation between these themes – but only for buyers and sellers prepared to adjust strategies quickly. The oversupply narrative gains momentum The International Energy Agency’s latest market update raised its forecast for global supply growth and warned that the world could be staring at a major surplus as soon as 2026. Analysts now expect non‑OPEC production to grow faster than demand, driven by the United States, Brazil and Guyana. At the same time, OPEC+ has been unwinding some of its output cuts, reversing course after nearly two years of restraint to regain market share from U.S. shale and other rivals.  The Gaza ceasefire has further reduced concerns about supply disruption in the Middle Eastoilprice.com. Combined with an easing of U.S.–China trade tensions, these factors have encouraged selling pressure and pushed prices lower.

Oil & Energy Outlook: Navigating Oversupply and Fed Uncertainty

September 22, 2025
Energy markets brace for volatility as Fed cuts ripple through oil, trade routes, and global investment flows. Published in London, 22 September 2025 12:26am (BST) The oil market has taken investors on a roller‑coaster ride since the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on 18 September. Initially traders hoped that cheaper borrowing would spur demand, but those gains were quickly erased as the focus shifted back to robust global supply and signs of weak demand. By the start of this week, Brent crude had slipped to about $66.57 per barrel, while WTI hovered around $62.64. Futures prices have remained locked in a narrow $65.50–$69 band since early August. This report dives into the key factors behind the latest price moves and what they mean for buyers, sellers and investors. We also provide actionable guidance drawn from our conversations with clients in London and across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Key Developments 1. Fed Rate Cut Fails to Lift Oil Demand • On 18 September the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the year, lowering its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points and signalling further reductions ahead. Normally a lower cost of capital would spur consumption and support oil prices. Yet the move came amid signs of a weakening U.S. jobs market and broader economic slowdown. • Traders quickly judged that a quarter‑point cut would do little to offset demand softness. Analyst John Kilduff of Again Capital said the Fed would need to be “more aggressive” to lift crude demand and warned that the central bank’s modest move could actually weaken the dollar, making oil more expensive for buyers. • Jobless claims have eased, but U.S. single‑family home construction plunged to a 2½‑year low. Both indicators point to headwinds for fuel demand. 2. Oversupply Fears Weigh on Prices • Despite OPEC+ rolling back some voluntary production cuts, global supplies remain ample. As Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates noted, “oil supplies continue to remain robust” and sanctions have yet to meaningfully disrupt Russian exports. • Iraq, the cartel’s second‑largest producer, increased exports as the OPEC+ quota unwind took effect. The state marketer SOMO expects September exports to reach 3.4–3.45 million barrels per day (bpd). • Kuwait’s oil production capacity has been assessed at 3.2 million bpd, its highest level in over a decade. This additional spare capacity hints at further supply pressure if demand remains lacklustre. • With supply growth outpacing consumption, analysts at SEB Bank warn that prices could slide into the $50s unless China opts to stockpile the surplus. 3. Distillate Stock Build & Refinery Turnarounds • U.S. distillate inventories rose by 4 million barrels in the latest weekly data, far exceeding expectations. The build reflects weak demand for diesel and heating oil. • The autumn refinery turnaround season is beginning, when refiners shut units for maintenance. According to Lipow, these overhauls will further reduce crude demand, amplifying the bearish sentiment. 4. Geopolitical Tensions but No Immediate Disruptions • Fresh tensions erupted as several Western nations recognised a Palestinian state and Estonia accused Russia of violating its airspace. While such events can spike risk premiums, they have not yet resulted in a meaningful oil supply disruption. • The Israeli strike in Doha earlier this month remains a concern for buyers; however, there has been no new escalation since, and Gulf export terminals continue to operate normally. Buyers should monitor the situation but avoid over‑reacting. 5. Other Energy News • In Kurdistan, Iraq’s government gave preliminary approval to resume pipeline exports through Turkey. A restart could add about 230,000 bpd to global flows once implemented. • Kuwaiti officials expect oil demand to rise following the Fed’s rate cut, especially from Asia. State‑owned QatarEnergy raised the term price for its al‑Shaheen crude to the highest level in eight months, signalling tight regional supplies for certain grades despite the broader oversupply narrative.