Strategic Moves in an Uncertain Climate

Shifting Supply, Tightening Contracts – Navigating Oil’s Uncertain Terrain

Published in Abu Dhabi - UAE, 10 August 2025 17:35am (GMT)




This past week has underlined just how complex and fast-moving the petroleum market has become. Prices continued to soften, with Brent crude slipping below $66 and WTI under $64—the longest losing streak since 2021. For buyers and sellers navigating this environment, the fluctuations aren’t just numbers on a screen—they represent shifting opportunities, risks, and strategic decisions that must be made quickly and with precision.


Price Trends and Supply Dynamics

OPEC+ confirmed a September output increase of 547,000 barrels per day. While this may reassure some markets about supply stability, it is also adding to downward price pressure at a time when demand growth is weaker than expected. The slowdown in China’s industrial output and muted US demand forecasts have contributed to the cautious tone.

In a significant supply chain shift, India’s IOC and BPCL finalised purchases of 22 million barrels of non-Russian crude. This is more than just a diversification of feedstock—it reflects a growing trend among major importers to secure supply chains that are resilient to sanctions, freight route risks, and political pressures.


Geopolitical Watch Points

Markets are watching closely for the outcome of potential U.S.–Russia discussions and the political pressure from former President Trump’s proposed Russia–Ukraine cease-fire deadline. Any breakthrough or setback could send ripples through the market almost immediately. For traders, this underscores the importance of real-time intelligence and the ability to pivot quickly.


Current Challenges for Buyers and Sellers

From our direct dealings this week:

  • Buyers are increasingly unwilling to commit to long laycan windows. They want verifiable allocations, rapid procedural alignment, and documentation that leaves no room for doubt.
  • Sellers are facing the dual challenge of maintaining credibility while adjusting to tighter banking timelines and heightened scrutiny of their performance history.
  • Intermediaries are finding that without clear and bankable offers, access to serious buyers is evaporating faster than ever.


Auctora Trade Group’s Perspective

At Auctora, we have spent the past week working with counterparties in the Gulf, Africa, and Europe who understand that success in today’s petroleum trade comes down to three critical factors:

  1. Counterparty Integrity – In volatile times, trust is currency. Every mandate, allocation, and instrument must be fully vetted.
  2. Procedural Clarity – Deals stall when procedures are vague or unrealistic. Alignment from the outset reduces risk and accelerates execution.
  3. Market Agility – The ability to adjust supply timelines, financing terms, and even product sources in response to market shifts is essential.


Our Advice to Buyers and Sellers

  • Stay Close to the Market: Political developments and supply adjustments can change pricing structures within hours.
  • Protect Your Position: Work only with counterparties who can demonstrate verified capability.
  • Shorten Your Exposure: Where possible, opt for shorter-term supply arrangements to minimise risk while maintaining flexibility.
  • Engage Strategically: Use this period to strengthen relationships with partners who have proven performance histories and banking credibility.


In an environment where the margin for error is shrinking, disciplined execution is the key differentiator. At Auctora Trade Group, we continue to work side-by-side with our clients to ensure that every deal is not just signed, but successfully delivered.

Oil Markets in Early 2026

February 2, 2026
Supply Chain Shifts, OPEC+ Moves, and the UAE’s Energy Strategy Published in Abu Dhabi, 02 Feb 2026 11:59 am (GST) At the start of February 2026, the global oil market stands at a crossroads. Crude prices are caught between two opposing forces. On one side, a growing supply surplus is exerting downward pressure. On the other, geopolitical tensions continue to inject volatility into pricing. Brent crude has recently approached the $70 per barrel level amid renewed U.S.–Iran friction, even as consensus forecasts point to average pricing in the low $60s for the year ahead. This complex environment is being shaped by three converging dynamics: structural shifts in global supply chains, recalibrated strategy within OPEC+, and long-term energy transition planning led by major producers such as the UAE. Global Oil Supply Chain Shifts T he global oil supply chain has been materially reshaped by geopolitics, sanctions, and changing demand centres. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, crude trade flows were rapidly reoriented. By 2024, approximately 81 percent of Russian crude exports were flowing into Asia, primarily China and India, compared with around 40 percent in 2021. Europe’s share fell to roughly 12 percent, down from nearly half prior to the conflict. European refiners responded by diversifying supply, increasing imports from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. This diversification improved resilience but raised transport costs and extended supply routes. Key global shifts include: China , now the world’s largest crude importer, imported approximately 11.1 million barrels per day in 2024. Russia has become its largest single supplier, supported by discounted pricing and long-term bilateral trade arrangements. India dramatically expanded imports of Russian crude, which now account for roughly one-third of its total oil intake. This shift strengthened India’s refining margins but triggered political pressure from Western governments throughout 2025. Europe , following its embargo on Russian oil, sources roughly one quarter of crude imports from Africa and over one fifth from the United States. Middle Eastern producers, including the UAE, have also increased volumes into European markets. The United States remains a substantial crude importer at approximately 6.6 million barrels per day, despite its position as a top global producer. The U.S. primarily imports heavy crude grades from Canada to meet refinery specifications, while exporting lighter grades and refined products. Beyond trade redirection, the supply landscape itself is expanding. New non-OPEC producers are gaining influence. Brazil, Guyana, and Canada are collectively expected to add around 2.4 million barrels per day of supply by 2026, intensifying competition and reinforcing a well-supplied global market. At the same time, oil demand growth continues to tilt eastward. Consumption in Europe and Japan remains subdued due to efficiency gains and slower growth, while China and India continue to drive incremental demand. This reinforces Asia’s central role in global oil flows and strategic planning.

Entering 2026: A More Disciplined, Stable Global Oil Market

January 7, 2026
A shift toward structured supply, disciplined capital allocation, and clearer pricing signals for producers and buyers alike. Published in Abu Dhabi, 07 January 2026 11:49 am (GST) As the global energy sector moves into 2026, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: oil markets are entering a more structured and disciplined phase. After several years marked by sharp volatility, geopolitical shocks, and shifting narratives around energy transition, the current environment is defined less by uncertainty and more by strategic positioning. Demand has proven resilient across key sectors including aviation, petrochemicals, power generation, and emerging markets. At the same time, supply growth has remained controlled, with producers prioritising capital discipline and long-term stability over volume expansion. This balance is setting a constructive foundation for the year ahead. In the Middle East, and particularly the UAE, energy markets are benefiting from clarity of direction. National oil companies continue to invest across upstream, downstream, and infrastructure projects while maintaining a pragmatic approach to energy transition. Rather than moving away from hydrocarbons, the focus is on optimisation, efficiency, and reliability. This approach is increasingly attractive to global buyers seeking secure, long-term supply in a fragmented world. Recent geopolitical events have reinforced the importance of jurisdictional stability rather than disrupting market fundamentals. While headlines can introduce short-term volatility, the oil market has shown an ability to absorb shocks without significant dislocation. This reflects both improved supply management and a deeper understanding among market participants of underlying demand dynamics.