As of mid-May 2025, EN590 10ppm (Euro 5) diesel is trading at around \$722 per metric ton (\$0.639 per litre) in the Netherlands. This represents a significant decline of over 6% since the beginning of the year.

Key Drivers of the Price Decline

Supply Dynamics: European diesel inventories have tightened, with stocks in major regions like Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) dropping by 12% since February. At the same time, U.S. diesel exports have increased, providing alternative sources for European buyers and adding pressure to local prices.

Demand Factors: While there has been some recovery in industrial activity across Europe, overall diesel demand remains muted. The continued transition toward electric vehicles and the shrinking diesel car fleet are playing a role in slowing demand growth.

Market Sentiment: Despite the tightening supply, global economic uncertainties, such as trade tensions and geopolitical risks, are causing market confusion. This disconnect between physical market fundamentals and futures prices highlights the complexities that buyers need to consider.

Implications for Buyers

Strategic Purchasing With prices at a two-year low, now could be an opportune time for larger-volume purchases. However, it’s essential to proceed with caution, as the market remains volatile. We advise our buyers to act swiftly but wisely, ensuring they lock in prices while considering potential future fluctuations.

Supply Chain Vigilance: Tightening inventories in key European hubs could indicate supply constraints in the near future. We recommend securing contracts with reliable suppliers to avoid disruptions and ensure your purchases are delivered on time and at the agreed price.

Regulatory Compliance: Given the growing emphasis on low-sulfur content and the integration of biodiesel in European markets, we advise buyers to ensure that their suppliers are fully compliant with EN590 standards. This will help avoid any regulatory hurdles or delays that could affect your operations.

Outlook and Strategy

The EN590 diesel market is navigating a complex set of dynamics. While current prices are lower, factors such as geopolitical risks, refining capacities, and regulatory changes could influence future price movements.

We understand that the market’s volatility can be unsettling, but we want to assure you that our goal is to help you make well-informed decisions. By staying proactive and keeping an eye on key trends, buyers can take advantage of opportunities while protecting themselves from potential risks.

At AuctorATG, we are committed to ensuring that our clients are equipped with the latest information to make strategic purchasing decisions that align with their long-term goals.