Oil Prices Are Down. Smart Buyers Are Stepping In

The Window to Buy Is Open – Are You Ready to Act

After a period of relative stability, the global oil market has shifted direction. Brent and WTI have both recorded their steepest weekly declines since early 2023, with Brent now trading below $70 per barrel. This drop is being driven by a combination of easing geopolitical tension, growing supply, and a reset in market sentiment following months of elevated prices.

For buyers and trading groups, the key question is not what happened, but what action to take next.

At Auctora Trade Group, our role is not only to facilitate transactions. We advise our clients through fast-moving conditions, helping them to position strategically. Here is what we believe clients need to know right now.



1. The Fall in Price May Be Temporary

The market has responded quickly to news of potential ceasefire agreements and oversupply concerns, but the fundamental risks have not gone away. OPEC+ continues to manage production levels closely, and regional disruptions are still a threat to global supply.

Our view is that this is a repricing, not a collapse. Buyers who sit on the sidelines too long may miss an optimal entry point and find themselves negotiating under pressure when volatility returns.


2. This Is a Buyer’s Window

In periods like this, sentiment tends to outweigh fundamentals. For active and qualified buyers, this creates a clear opportunity to:

  • Lock in pricing while it is favourable
  • Negotiate more flexible terms with motivated sellers
  • Expand or diversify their supply base

We are currently supporting several buyers who are securing long-term allocations for EN590 and LNG under improved terms.


3. Think Strategically, Not Emotionally

Sudden market movement often causes either hesitation or panic buying. Neither approach is effective.

We encourage clients to assess their actual needs for Q3 and Q4, understand which sellers are offering verified and executable deals, and secure the right payment terms or instruments that fit the current landscape.

Auctora provides real-time advisory, seller validation, and guidance on structuring deals correctly to avoid delays and mitigate risk.


4. Stay Informed and Avoid Reactive Decisions

Volatility will continue. Oil prices remain sensitive to political developments, inflation outlooks, and interest rate speculation. Currency moves and logistical issues may also affect cost and availability.

Buyers who stay close to current intelligence and take a structured approach to procurement will be best positioned to succeed in the coming months.


Final Thought

Markets reward preparation, not hesitation. What we are seeing today is not a signal to retreat. It is a moment to act with purpose.

If you are a buyer, mandate, or procurement lead considering your next move, Auctora Trade Group is here to provide you with insight, sourcing support, and reliable execution.

Oil Market at a Crossroads: Oversupply Fears vs. Shock Events

October 20, 2025
IEA Surplus Warning, China’s Import Slowdown and a Russian Refinery Outage Shake Global Supply Published in Abu Dhabi, 20 October 2025 2:56pm (GST) Over the past week oil traders have been pulled between two very different narratives. On one side, fears of a deep oversupply have dragged Brent and WTI to multi‑week lows, with benchmarks down more than two percent last week and early trades this week seeing Brent futures around US$61.11 and WTI near US$57.34 as investors priced in a looming glut. On the other side, geopolitical flashpoints continue to crop up, briefly tightening supply and reminding the market that refined products and crude flows can be interrupted without warning. At Auctora we see opportunity in the dislocation between these themes – but only for buyers and sellers prepared to adjust strategies quickly. The oversupply narrative gains momentum The International Energy Agency’s latest market update raised its forecast for global supply growth and warned that the world could be staring at a major surplus as soon as 2026. Analysts now expect non‑OPEC production to grow faster than demand, driven by the United States, Brazil and Guyana. At the same time, OPEC+ has been unwinding some of its output cuts, reversing course after nearly two years of restraint to regain market share from U.S. shale and other rivals.  The Gaza ceasefire has further reduced concerns about supply disruption in the Middle Eastoilprice.com. Combined with an easing of U.S.–China trade tensions, these factors have encouraged selling pressure and pushed prices lower.

Oil & Energy Outlook: Navigating Oversupply and Fed Uncertainty

September 22, 2025
Energy markets brace for volatility as Fed cuts ripple through oil, trade routes, and global investment flows. Published in London, 22 September 2025 12:26am (BST) The oil market has taken investors on a roller‑coaster ride since the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on 18 September. Initially traders hoped that cheaper borrowing would spur demand, but those gains were quickly erased as the focus shifted back to robust global supply and signs of weak demand. By the start of this week, Brent crude had slipped to about $66.57 per barrel, while WTI hovered around $62.64. Futures prices have remained locked in a narrow $65.50–$69 band since early August. This report dives into the key factors behind the latest price moves and what they mean for buyers, sellers and investors. We also provide actionable guidance drawn from our conversations with clients in London and across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Key Developments 1. Fed Rate Cut Fails to Lift Oil Demand • On 18 September the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the year, lowering its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points and signalling further reductions ahead. Normally a lower cost of capital would spur consumption and support oil prices. Yet the move came amid signs of a weakening U.S. jobs market and broader economic slowdown. • Traders quickly judged that a quarter‑point cut would do little to offset demand softness. Analyst John Kilduff of Again Capital said the Fed would need to be “more aggressive” to lift crude demand and warned that the central bank’s modest move could actually weaken the dollar, making oil more expensive for buyers. • Jobless claims have eased, but U.S. single‑family home construction plunged to a 2½‑year low. Both indicators point to headwinds for fuel demand. 2. Oversupply Fears Weigh on Prices • Despite OPEC+ rolling back some voluntary production cuts, global supplies remain ample. As Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates noted, “oil supplies continue to remain robust” and sanctions have yet to meaningfully disrupt Russian exports. • Iraq, the cartel’s second‑largest producer, increased exports as the OPEC+ quota unwind took effect. The state marketer SOMO expects September exports to reach 3.4–3.45 million barrels per day (bpd). • Kuwait’s oil production capacity has been assessed at 3.2 million bpd, its highest level in over a decade. This additional spare capacity hints at further supply pressure if demand remains lacklustre. • With supply growth outpacing consumption, analysts at SEB Bank warn that prices could slide into the $50s unless China opts to stockpile the surplus. 3. Distillate Stock Build & Refinery Turnarounds • U.S. distillate inventories rose by 4 million barrels in the latest weekly data, far exceeding expectations. The build reflects weak demand for diesel and heating oil. • The autumn refinery turnaround season is beginning, when refiners shut units for maintenance. According to Lipow, these overhauls will further reduce crude demand, amplifying the bearish sentiment. 4. Geopolitical Tensions but No Immediate Disruptions • Fresh tensions erupted as several Western nations recognised a Palestinian state and Estonia accused Russia of violating its airspace. While such events can spike risk premiums, they have not yet resulted in a meaningful oil supply disruption. • The Israeli strike in Doha earlier this month remains a concern for buyers; however, there has been no new escalation since, and Gulf export terminals continue to operate normally. Buyers should monitor the situation but avoid over‑reacting. 5. Other Energy News • In Kurdistan, Iraq’s government gave preliminary approval to resume pipeline exports through Turkey. A restart could add about 230,000 bpd to global flows once implemented. • Kuwaiti officials expect oil demand to rise following the Fed’s rate cut, especially from Asia. State‑owned QatarEnergy raised the term price for its al‑Shaheen crude to the highest level in eight months, signalling tight regional supplies for certain grades despite the broader oversupply narrative.