Oil Prices Are Down. Smart Buyers Are Stepping In

The Window to Buy Is Open – Are You Ready to Act

After a period of relative stability, the global oil market has shifted direction. Brent and WTI have both recorded their steepest weekly declines since early 2023, with Brent now trading below $70 per barrel. This drop is being driven by a combination of easing geopolitical tension, growing supply, and a reset in market sentiment following months of elevated prices.

For buyers and trading groups, the key question is not what happened, but what action to take next.

At Auctora Trade Group, our role is not only to facilitate transactions. We advise our clients through fast-moving conditions, helping them to position strategically. Here is what we believe clients need to know right now.



1. The Fall in Price May Be Temporary

The market has responded quickly to news of potential ceasefire agreements and oversupply concerns, but the fundamental risks have not gone away. OPEC+ continues to manage production levels closely, and regional disruptions are still a threat to global supply.

Our view is that this is a repricing, not a collapse. Buyers who sit on the sidelines too long may miss an optimal entry point and find themselves negotiating under pressure when volatility returns.


2. This Is a Buyer’s Window

In periods like this, sentiment tends to outweigh fundamentals. For active and qualified buyers, this creates a clear opportunity to:

  • Lock in pricing while it is favourable
  • Negotiate more flexible terms with motivated sellers
  • Expand or diversify their supply base

We are currently supporting several buyers who are securing long-term allocations for EN590 and LNG under improved terms.


3. Think Strategically, Not Emotionally

Sudden market movement often causes either hesitation or panic buying. Neither approach is effective.

We encourage clients to assess their actual needs for Q3 and Q4, understand which sellers are offering verified and executable deals, and secure the right payment terms or instruments that fit the current landscape.

Auctora provides real-time advisory, seller validation, and guidance on structuring deals correctly to avoid delays and mitigate risk.


4. Stay Informed and Avoid Reactive Decisions

Volatility will continue. Oil prices remain sensitive to political developments, inflation outlooks, and interest rate speculation. Currency moves and logistical issues may also affect cost and availability.

Buyers who stay close to current intelligence and take a structured approach to procurement will be best positioned to succeed in the coming months.


Final Thought

Markets reward preparation, not hesitation. What we are seeing today is not a signal to retreat. It is a moment to act with purpose.

If you are a buyer, mandate, or procurement lead considering your next move, Auctora Trade Group is here to provide you with insight, sourcing support, and reliable execution.

Oil Markets in Early 2026

February 2, 2026
Supply Chain Shifts, OPEC+ Moves, and the UAE’s Energy Strategy Published in Abu Dhabi, 02 Feb 2026 11:59 am (GST) At the start of February 2026, the global oil market stands at a crossroads. Crude prices are caught between two opposing forces. On one side, a growing supply surplus is exerting downward pressure. On the other, geopolitical tensions continue to inject volatility into pricing. Brent crude has recently approached the $70 per barrel level amid renewed U.S.–Iran friction, even as consensus forecasts point to average pricing in the low $60s for the year ahead. This complex environment is being shaped by three converging dynamics: structural shifts in global supply chains, recalibrated strategy within OPEC+, and long-term energy transition planning led by major producers such as the UAE. Global Oil Supply Chain Shifts T he global oil supply chain has been materially reshaped by geopolitics, sanctions, and changing demand centres. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, crude trade flows were rapidly reoriented. By 2024, approximately 81 percent of Russian crude exports were flowing into Asia, primarily China and India, compared with around 40 percent in 2021. Europe’s share fell to roughly 12 percent, down from nearly half prior to the conflict. European refiners responded by diversifying supply, increasing imports from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. This diversification improved resilience but raised transport costs and extended supply routes. Key global shifts include: China , now the world’s largest crude importer, imported approximately 11.1 million barrels per day in 2024. Russia has become its largest single supplier, supported by discounted pricing and long-term bilateral trade arrangements. India dramatically expanded imports of Russian crude, which now account for roughly one-third of its total oil intake. This shift strengthened India’s refining margins but triggered political pressure from Western governments throughout 2025. Europe , following its embargo on Russian oil, sources roughly one quarter of crude imports from Africa and over one fifth from the United States. Middle Eastern producers, including the UAE, have also increased volumes into European markets. The United States remains a substantial crude importer at approximately 6.6 million barrels per day, despite its position as a top global producer. The U.S. primarily imports heavy crude grades from Canada to meet refinery specifications, while exporting lighter grades and refined products. Beyond trade redirection, the supply landscape itself is expanding. New non-OPEC producers are gaining influence. Brazil, Guyana, and Canada are collectively expected to add around 2.4 million barrels per day of supply by 2026, intensifying competition and reinforcing a well-supplied global market. At the same time, oil demand growth continues to tilt eastward. Consumption in Europe and Japan remains subdued due to efficiency gains and slower growth, while China and India continue to drive incremental demand. This reinforces Asia’s central role in global oil flows and strategic planning.

Entering 2026: A More Disciplined, Stable Global Oil Market

January 7, 2026
A shift toward structured supply, disciplined capital allocation, and clearer pricing signals for producers and buyers alike. Published in Abu Dhabi, 07 January 2026 11:49 am (GST) As the global energy sector moves into 2026, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: oil markets are entering a more structured and disciplined phase. After several years marked by sharp volatility, geopolitical shocks, and shifting narratives around energy transition, the current environment is defined less by uncertainty and more by strategic positioning. Demand has proven resilient across key sectors including aviation, petrochemicals, power generation, and emerging markets. At the same time, supply growth has remained controlled, with producers prioritising capital discipline and long-term stability over volume expansion. This balance is setting a constructive foundation for the year ahead. In the Middle East, and particularly the UAE, energy markets are benefiting from clarity of direction. National oil companies continue to invest across upstream, downstream, and infrastructure projects while maintaining a pragmatic approach to energy transition. Rather than moving away from hydrocarbons, the focus is on optimisation, efficiency, and reliability. This approach is increasingly attractive to global buyers seeking secure, long-term supply in a fragmented world. Recent geopolitical events have reinforced the importance of jurisdictional stability rather than disrupting market fundamentals. While headlines can introduce short-term volatility, the oil market has shown an ability to absorb shocks without significant dislocation. This reflects both improved supply management and a deeper understanding among market participants of underlying demand dynamics.