Rising Forecasts, Growing Risks – What Smart Buyers Should Be Doing Now

Oil markets are heating up again, but not in the way you might expect.

Published in Abu Dhabi - UAE, 15 July  2025 08:12am (GMT)


After weeks of price weakness, Goldman Sachs has just raised its Brent crude forecast to $66 per barrel for the second half of 2025, with WTI projected to average $63. The revision comes amid concerns over lower OECD inventories, supply chain disruptions, and weaker Russian output. While the price bump may appear modest, the underlying message is clear: the market is tightening, and smart buyers need to start thinking ahead.


Supply Is Still the Wildcard

Despite headlines focusing on global slowdown fears and recession risk, there are deep cracks forming on the supply side. Russian exports are becoming increasingly unstable. Middle Eastern political tensions are far from resolved. And even with OPEC+ boosting output, spare capacity is being drawn down faster than expected.

As Goldman notes, “even a minor disruption in Iranian supply could send Brent towards $90 per barrel”. That's not just theoretical—it’s a scenario that experienced buyers are watching closely.



The Recession vs. Reality Debate

On the flip side, some analysts point to global economic headwinds and suggest oil prices could fall back toward $40 if demand stalls. While possible, we at Auctora Trade Group believe the fundamentals support a more balanced outlook. Demand from emerging markets is steady, aviation fuel use is rising, and key economies are showing more resilience than expected.

The current pricing isn’t driven by panic or euphoria—it’s the result of strategic recalibration. And that’s where opportunity lies.


What Should Buyers Be Doing Right Now?

  1. Lock in Contracts While Prices Are Still Manageable
    This window may not last. Volatility is building beneath the surface, and forward pricing is likely to rise with it. Long-term buyers should consider securing volumes for Q3 and Q4 now.
  2. Build Flexibility into Procurement Terms
    We’re working with clients to negotiate adaptive supply contracts with rollover clauses, capped price bands, and performance guarantees to absorb sudden market moves.
  3. Use Structured Hedging
    Institutions like Goldman are recommending option-based strategies like put spreads. For physical buyers, this means thinking beyond spot pricing and integrating smart risk tools to manage cost exposure.


Our View at Auctora

As a company actively involved in structuring physical trades, advising mandates, and supporting real buyers, we are seeing an uptick in CIF interest for EN590, Jet A1, LNG, and LPG. Sellers are beginning to tighten timelines and restrict volume windows, particularly on European and MENA allocations.

This is not a moment for hesitation. It’s a moment for strategic action.


We Do More Than Broker Deals

At Auctora Trade Group, we’re more than intermediaries. We bring market intelligence, negotiation support, compliance guidance, and strategic thinking to every transaction. Whether you’re a fuel buyer, refinery partner, or institutional mandate, our role is to help you move with confidence through every turn in the market.

Oil Market at a Crossroads: Oversupply Fears vs. Shock Events

October 20, 2025
IEA Surplus Warning, China’s Import Slowdown and a Russian Refinery Outage Shake Global Supply Published in Abu Dhabi, 20 October 2025 2:56pm (GST) Over the past week oil traders have been pulled between two very different narratives. On one side, fears of a deep oversupply have dragged Brent and WTI to multi‑week lows, with benchmarks down more than two percent last week and early trades this week seeing Brent futures around US$61.11 and WTI near US$57.34 as investors priced in a looming glut. On the other side, geopolitical flashpoints continue to crop up, briefly tightening supply and reminding the market that refined products and crude flows can be interrupted without warning. At Auctora we see opportunity in the dislocation between these themes – but only for buyers and sellers prepared to adjust strategies quickly. The oversupply narrative gains momentum The International Energy Agency’s latest market update raised its forecast for global supply growth and warned that the world could be staring at a major surplus as soon as 2026. Analysts now expect non‑OPEC production to grow faster than demand, driven by the United States, Brazil and Guyana. At the same time, OPEC+ has been unwinding some of its output cuts, reversing course after nearly two years of restraint to regain market share from U.S. shale and other rivals.  The Gaza ceasefire has further reduced concerns about supply disruption in the Middle Eastoilprice.com. Combined with an easing of U.S.–China trade tensions, these factors have encouraged selling pressure and pushed prices lower.

Oil & Energy Outlook: Navigating Oversupply and Fed Uncertainty

September 22, 2025
Energy markets brace for volatility as Fed cuts ripple through oil, trade routes, and global investment flows. Published in London, 22 September 2025 12:26am (BST) The oil market has taken investors on a roller‑coaster ride since the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on 18 September. Initially traders hoped that cheaper borrowing would spur demand, but those gains were quickly erased as the focus shifted back to robust global supply and signs of weak demand. By the start of this week, Brent crude had slipped to about $66.57 per barrel, while WTI hovered around $62.64. Futures prices have remained locked in a narrow $65.50–$69 band since early August. This report dives into the key factors behind the latest price moves and what they mean for buyers, sellers and investors. We also provide actionable guidance drawn from our conversations with clients in London and across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Key Developments 1. Fed Rate Cut Fails to Lift Oil Demand • On 18 September the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the year, lowering its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points and signalling further reductions ahead. Normally a lower cost of capital would spur consumption and support oil prices. Yet the move came amid signs of a weakening U.S. jobs market and broader economic slowdown. • Traders quickly judged that a quarter‑point cut would do little to offset demand softness. Analyst John Kilduff of Again Capital said the Fed would need to be “more aggressive” to lift crude demand and warned that the central bank’s modest move could actually weaken the dollar, making oil more expensive for buyers. • Jobless claims have eased, but U.S. single‑family home construction plunged to a 2½‑year low. Both indicators point to headwinds for fuel demand. 2. Oversupply Fears Weigh on Prices • Despite OPEC+ rolling back some voluntary production cuts, global supplies remain ample. As Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates noted, “oil supplies continue to remain robust” and sanctions have yet to meaningfully disrupt Russian exports. • Iraq, the cartel’s second‑largest producer, increased exports as the OPEC+ quota unwind took effect. The state marketer SOMO expects September exports to reach 3.4–3.45 million barrels per day (bpd). • Kuwait’s oil production capacity has been assessed at 3.2 million bpd, its highest level in over a decade. This additional spare capacity hints at further supply pressure if demand remains lacklustre. • With supply growth outpacing consumption, analysts at SEB Bank warn that prices could slide into the $50s unless China opts to stockpile the surplus. 3. Distillate Stock Build & Refinery Turnarounds • U.S. distillate inventories rose by 4 million barrels in the latest weekly data, far exceeding expectations. The build reflects weak demand for diesel and heating oil. • The autumn refinery turnaround season is beginning, when refiners shut units for maintenance. According to Lipow, these overhauls will further reduce crude demand, amplifying the bearish sentiment. 4. Geopolitical Tensions but No Immediate Disruptions • Fresh tensions erupted as several Western nations recognised a Palestinian state and Estonia accused Russia of violating its airspace. While such events can spike risk premiums, they have not yet resulted in a meaningful oil supply disruption. • The Israeli strike in Doha earlier this month remains a concern for buyers; however, there has been no new escalation since, and Gulf export terminals continue to operate normally. Buyers should monitor the situation but avoid over‑reacting. 5. Other Energy News • In Kurdistan, Iraq’s government gave preliminary approval to resume pipeline exports through Turkey. A restart could add about 230,000 bpd to global flows once implemented. • Kuwaiti officials expect oil demand to rise following the Fed’s rate cut, especially from Asia. State‑owned QatarEnergy raised the term price for its al‑Shaheen crude to the highest level in eight months, signalling tight regional supplies for certain grades despite the broader oversupply narrative.