Rising Forecasts, Growing Risks – What Smart Buyers Should Be Doing Now

Oil markets are heating up again, but not in the way you might expect.

Published in Abu Dhabi - UAE, 15 July  2025 08:12am (GMT)


After weeks of price weakness, Goldman Sachs has just raised its Brent crude forecast to $66 per barrel for the second half of 2025, with WTI projected to average $63. The revision comes amid concerns over lower OECD inventories, supply chain disruptions, and weaker Russian output. While the price bump may appear modest, the underlying message is clear: the market is tightening, and smart buyers need to start thinking ahead.


Supply Is Still the Wildcard

Despite headlines focusing on global slowdown fears and recession risk, there are deep cracks forming on the supply side. Russian exports are becoming increasingly unstable. Middle Eastern political tensions are far from resolved. And even with OPEC+ boosting output, spare capacity is being drawn down faster than expected.

As Goldman notes, “even a minor disruption in Iranian supply could send Brent towards $90 per barrel”. That's not just theoretical—it’s a scenario that experienced buyers are watching closely.



The Recession vs. Reality Debate

On the flip side, some analysts point to global economic headwinds and suggest oil prices could fall back toward $40 if demand stalls. While possible, we at Auctora Trade Group believe the fundamentals support a more balanced outlook. Demand from emerging markets is steady, aviation fuel use is rising, and key economies are showing more resilience than expected.

The current pricing isn’t driven by panic or euphoria—it’s the result of strategic recalibration. And that’s where opportunity lies.


What Should Buyers Be Doing Right Now?

  1. Lock in Contracts While Prices Are Still Manageable
    This window may not last. Volatility is building beneath the surface, and forward pricing is likely to rise with it. Long-term buyers should consider securing volumes for Q3 and Q4 now.
  2. Build Flexibility into Procurement Terms
    We’re working with clients to negotiate adaptive supply contracts with rollover clauses, capped price bands, and performance guarantees to absorb sudden market moves.
  3. Use Structured Hedging
    Institutions like Goldman are recommending option-based strategies like put spreads. For physical buyers, this means thinking beyond spot pricing and integrating smart risk tools to manage cost exposure.


Our View at Auctora

As a company actively involved in structuring physical trades, advising mandates, and supporting real buyers, we are seeing an uptick in CIF interest for EN590, Jet A1, LNG, and LPG. Sellers are beginning to tighten timelines and restrict volume windows, particularly on European and MENA allocations.

This is not a moment for hesitation. It’s a moment for strategic action.


We Do More Than Broker Deals

At Auctora Trade Group, we’re more than intermediaries. We bring market intelligence, negotiation support, compliance guidance, and strategic thinking to every transaction. Whether you’re a fuel buyer, refinery partner, or institutional mandate, our role is to help you move with confidence through every turn in the market.

Oil Markets in Early 2026

February 2, 2026
Supply Chain Shifts, OPEC+ Moves, and the UAE’s Energy Strategy Published in Abu Dhabi, 02 Feb 2026 11:59 am (GST) At the start of February 2026, the global oil market stands at a crossroads. Crude prices are caught between two opposing forces. On one side, a growing supply surplus is exerting downward pressure. On the other, geopolitical tensions continue to inject volatility into pricing. Brent crude has recently approached the $70 per barrel level amid renewed U.S.–Iran friction, even as consensus forecasts point to average pricing in the low $60s for the year ahead. This complex environment is being shaped by three converging dynamics: structural shifts in global supply chains, recalibrated strategy within OPEC+, and long-term energy transition planning led by major producers such as the UAE. Global Oil Supply Chain Shifts T he global oil supply chain has been materially reshaped by geopolitics, sanctions, and changing demand centres. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, crude trade flows were rapidly reoriented. By 2024, approximately 81 percent of Russian crude exports were flowing into Asia, primarily China and India, compared with around 40 percent in 2021. Europe’s share fell to roughly 12 percent, down from nearly half prior to the conflict. European refiners responded by diversifying supply, increasing imports from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. This diversification improved resilience but raised transport costs and extended supply routes. Key global shifts include: China , now the world’s largest crude importer, imported approximately 11.1 million barrels per day in 2024. Russia has become its largest single supplier, supported by discounted pricing and long-term bilateral trade arrangements. India dramatically expanded imports of Russian crude, which now account for roughly one-third of its total oil intake. This shift strengthened India’s refining margins but triggered political pressure from Western governments throughout 2025. Europe , following its embargo on Russian oil, sources roughly one quarter of crude imports from Africa and over one fifth from the United States. Middle Eastern producers, including the UAE, have also increased volumes into European markets. The United States remains a substantial crude importer at approximately 6.6 million barrels per day, despite its position as a top global producer. The U.S. primarily imports heavy crude grades from Canada to meet refinery specifications, while exporting lighter grades and refined products. Beyond trade redirection, the supply landscape itself is expanding. New non-OPEC producers are gaining influence. Brazil, Guyana, and Canada are collectively expected to add around 2.4 million barrels per day of supply by 2026, intensifying competition and reinforcing a well-supplied global market. At the same time, oil demand growth continues to tilt eastward. Consumption in Europe and Japan remains subdued due to efficiency gains and slower growth, while China and India continue to drive incremental demand. This reinforces Asia’s central role in global oil flows and strategic planning.

Entering 2026: A More Disciplined, Stable Global Oil Market

January 7, 2026
A shift toward structured supply, disciplined capital allocation, and clearer pricing signals for producers and buyers alike. Published in Abu Dhabi, 07 January 2026 11:49 am (GST) As the global energy sector moves into 2026, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: oil markets are entering a more structured and disciplined phase. After several years marked by sharp volatility, geopolitical shocks, and shifting narratives around energy transition, the current environment is defined less by uncertainty and more by strategic positioning. Demand has proven resilient across key sectors including aviation, petrochemicals, power generation, and emerging markets. At the same time, supply growth has remained controlled, with producers prioritising capital discipline and long-term stability over volume expansion. This balance is setting a constructive foundation for the year ahead. In the Middle East, and particularly the UAE, energy markets are benefiting from clarity of direction. National oil companies continue to invest across upstream, downstream, and infrastructure projects while maintaining a pragmatic approach to energy transition. Rather than moving away from hydrocarbons, the focus is on optimisation, efficiency, and reliability. This approach is increasingly attractive to global buyers seeking secure, long-term supply in a fragmented world. Recent geopolitical events have reinforced the importance of jurisdictional stability rather than disrupting market fundamentals. While headlines can introduce short-term volatility, the oil market has shown an ability to absorb shocks without significant dislocation. This reflects both improved supply management and a deeper understanding among market participants of underlying demand dynamics.