Oil markets are heating up again, but not in the way you might expect.
After weeks of price weakness, Goldman Sachs has just raised its Brent crude forecast to $66 per barrel for the second half of 2025, with WTI projected to average $63. The revision comes amid concerns over lower OECD inventories, supply chain disruptions, and weaker Russian output. While the price bump may appear modest, the underlying message is clear: the market is tightening, and smart buyers need to start thinking ahead.
Supply Is Still the Wildcard
Despite headlines focusing on global slowdown fears and recession risk, there are deep cracks forming on the supply side. Russian exports are becoming increasingly unstable. Middle Eastern political tensions are far from resolved. And even with OPEC+ boosting output, spare capacity is being drawn down faster than expected.
As Goldman notes, “even a minor disruption in Iranian supply could send Brent towards $90 per barrel” (Reuters, July 2025). That's not just theoretical—it’s a scenario that experienced buyers are watching closely.
The Recession vs. Reality Debate
On the flip side, some analysts point to global economic headwinds and suggest oil prices could fall back toward $40 if demand stalls. While possible, we at Auctora Trade Group believe the fundamentals support a more balanced outlook. Demand from emerging markets is steady, aviation fuel use is rising, and key economies are showing more resilience than expected.
The current pricing isn’t driven by panic or euphoria—it’s the result of strategic recalibration. And that’s where opportunity lies.
What Should Buyers Be Doing Right Now?
- Lock in Contracts While Prices Are Still Manageable
This window may not last. Volatility is building beneath the surface, and forward pricing is likely to rise with it. Long-term buyers should consider securing volumes for Q3 and Q4 now. - Build Flexibility into Procurement Terms
We’re working with clients to negotiate adaptive supply contracts with rollover clauses, capped price bands, and performance guarantees to absorb sudden market moves. - Use Structured Hedging
Institutions like Goldman are recommending option-based strategies like put spreads. For physical buyers, this means thinking beyond spot pricing and integrating smart risk tools to manage cost exposure.
Our View at Auctora
As a company actively involved in structuring physical trades, advising mandates, and supporting real buyers, we are seeing an uptick in CIF interest for EN590, Jet A1, LNG, and LPG. Sellers are beginning to tighten timelines and restrict volume windows, particularly on European and MENA allocations.
This is not a moment for hesitation. It’s a moment for strategic action.
We Do More Than Broker Deals
At Auctora Trade Group, we’re more than intermediaries. We bring market intelligence, negotiation support, compliance guidance, and strategic thinking to every transaction. Whether you’re a fuel buyer, refinery partner, or institutional mandate, our role is to help you move with confidence through every turn in the market.
